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Dr. Paul Sullivan    

Professor of Economics at National Defense University

Dr. Paul Sullivan teaches about energy and environmental security at Johns Hopkins, is a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center, and a senior research associate at the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies among other duties and posts. He was a full professor at the National Defense University (USA) for over 22 years where he ran the Energy Industry Study, taught Industry Analytics, Economics of National Security, and other electives and regional studies related to the MENA region, the Islamic world, Economic Warfare, and other timely issues. As part of his NDU duties, he ran energy field studies in the US, Asia, Australia, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and the EU. He taught at Georgetown, The American University in Cairo, and Yale. He is also teaching courses on “Climate Change and Energy Transitions” and “Middle East Today”, for the Yale Alumni College.

He has given talks on five continents at places as varied as Windsor Castle, Ditchley Park, The IEEJ in Japan, the diplomatic academies of Malta and Jordan, The FOA in Sweden, The Chilean Defense Collage, The Defense College of Mongolia, and think tanks and law firms globally, among others. His present research interests include the energy-resilience nexus, economic and resource aspects of human security, energy transitions, US-MENA relations, EU energy security, EU-Russian energy relations, Arctic energy issues, US-MENA-Japan relations, the energy-water-food nexus, the connections between inflation and poverty, and other topics.

He has almost three decades of experience with and in the MENA region and considerable experience in other parts of the world, including the EU, gathered over a career of over 40 years He holds a BA from Brandeis University (Summa Cum Laude), along with MA, MPhil, and PhD degrees from Yale University. He was part of MIT’s Seminar XXI’s class of 2006. He has a certificate of completion in Ethnoarchaeology from a field study in Barunga, Australia, run by Flinders University in Australia.


Climate change may change the face of trade routes across GCC
If Suez is challenged by new Arctic routes then the Bab El Mandab strait, along the Arabian Peninsula, will also be challenged as would ports along the Red Sea. Hormuz could be challenged by the relative decline in trade along the Suez Canal and an expected decline in oil and LNG trade over the coming decades. Ports all along the southern and eastern parts of the Arabian Peninsula may find many new competitive challenges. There is a chance that oil and gas could be replaced by hydrogen and ammonia of all colors, but that would also be determined by how competition develops between the region and other parts of the world.

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