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Strategic advisor, policy expert, and best-selling author Michele Wucker coined the term “gray rhino” as a call to take a fresh look at obvious, probable, impactful risks that give us a choice to act or not. Her insights help to explain why some people step up to head off the dangers right in front of their eyes, yet others let themselves and those around them get trampled. Wucker introduced the gray rhino at the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos in 2013. It inspired her third book, the influential global best-seller, "THE GRAY RHINO: How to Recognize and Act on Obvious Dangers We Ignore." Her 2019 TED Talk about using the gray rhino in personal life has attracted more than 2.5 million views.
Drawing on her earlier work as a global economic policy analyst, financial journalist, and think tank executive, Wucker founded the Chicago-based advisory firm Gray Rhino & Company to help business and policy decision makers to use gray rhino theory to improve their risk responses. She speaks regularly to high-level audiences on risk management, the global economy, and decision-making. She has been recognized as a Young Global Leader of the World Economic Forum and a Guggenheim Fellow, among other honors.
The gray rhino has made headlines around the world as a framework for the ignored warnings for the COVID-19 pandemic. It has appeared in thousands of media references in more than 70 countries and 35 languages and counting. It sent tremors through global stock markets when Chinese officials warned of gray rhino financial risks. Central banks and securities regulators around the world use gray rhino theory, as do business strategists, boards of directors, business continuity and emergency management professionals, insurers, ESG specialists, and policy makers focused on everything from national security to climate change.
The metaphor appears in a lyric in the hit single, “Blue & Grey,” by the global mega-K-Pop phenomenon BTS. It has inspired characters in a video game and an experimental jazz single in Japan, and a dance choreography in Australia. The gray rhino also has cameos in the pages of books by respected historians and diplomats, business writers from China to Brazil, and even a science fiction novel.
To her great surprise, Wucker’s readers encouraged her to apply the gray rhino concept to more personal issues. In response, her newest book, "YOU ARE WHAT YOU RISK: The New Art and Science of Navigating an Uncertain World," builds on insights into personality and societal influences on how and why each of us responds to looming risks the way we do in business, life, and the world. Her first two books, WHY THE COCKS FIGHT and LOCKOUT, have influenced debates on US policy on immigration and in Latin America. Her byline has appeared in publications around the world including The Economist, The New York Times, the Washington Post, and The Wall Street Journal, and strategy and business. She has been interviewed and quoted by many media including the BBC, National Public Radio, CNN, CNBC, MSNBC, Reuters, and many more.
Videos
Speech Topics
Gray Rhinos and Green Swans: The New ESG Imperative
Environment and climate are global, obvious, challenges with huge impact on supply chains, agriculture, property values, and finance. Yet progress in dealing with them has been painfully slow. That is changing, with huge implications for capital flows and investment strategies. Amid increasingly extreme weather and recognition that global supply chains depend on addressing climate change, calls are rising for action. Companies are waking up on environment, social, and governance (ESG) issues - not for political reasons, but because it's a business imperative.
What does the ESG rallying cry mean for your business? How do the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) fit in? How do you sound the alarm loud enough to get your company and partners on board? What are the right change metrics to follow? The audience will leave with:
A dynamic systems understanding of climate risks
Tools for analyzing key stakeholders and motivating them to move from denial or muddling to action
An understanding of the rising debate over climate risk pricing
Actionable ideas to help you apply ESG principles to employee and customer engagement
Insights into the dangers of greenwashing
Michele jokes that she’s lost count of the number of questions from reporters about the climate change gray rhino: charging right at us, but only some people are responding. Experts at Davos debated green swans and gray rhinos in 2020. Michele’s network of industry connections gives her an inside track into some of the latest developments in ESG conversations, both positive and pitfalls. She has spoken to governments, companies, trade groups, and other non-governmental organizations about climate change and the transition to zero-carbon. The recent flood of investment using ESG criteria –and the rising ESG debates and new regulations— means this is a trend you cannot afford to ignore.
This program is perfect for:
Policy makers
Boards
Risk managers and business continuity professionals
Investors
Format:30-45 minute keynote with Q&A
Risk Skills in the Future of Work
In a world made more uncertain by the advance of new technologies, automation, and artificial intelligence, combined with sudden shocks like pandemics and extreme weather, the most essential skills involve your ability to manage risks and navigate uncertainty. How will jobs and the workplace transform -and what do you need to do to be ready?
Takeaways: - Why your risk choices tell the world who you are just as distinctively as a fingerprint identifies you
How understanding the often surprising influences on your risk fingerprint can help you make better decisions
Why the key skills employers need are tied to your ability to manage risk and uncertainty
How risk awareness and risk empathy can improve teamwork and relationships with key stakeholders
What to ask about an organization's risk culture when deciding whether or not it's a good match for you
The importance of creating a healthy risk portfolio across career, health, finance, and relationships
This program is perfect for:
Senior management focused on human capital strategy
HR Professionals building human capital
Teams needing help managing change
Leaders seeking to catalyze innovation
This program is based on insights developed in Michele’s most recent book, "YOU ARE WHAT YOU RISK: The New Art and Science of Managing an Uncertain World."
Format: 1.5 hour to 1/2 day interactive workshop with breakouts. Can be customized to include follow-up (breakouts can be separated out depending on group size) and read-out report.
Risk Empathy for Team Building
Risk empathy is the ability to understand how others experience risks and adapt your own behavior to meet those needs. Just as analyzing your own risk fingerprint -that is, the influences behind the risks you take- gives you valuable insights into your own risk choices, seeking insights into the risk fingerprints of your colleagues, clients, friends, and family can be a powerful tool in business and life.
The audience will leave with:
The ability to analyze your own risk fingerprint
Powerful questions and strategies for understanding the risk fingerprints of those around you
Tools for building risk empathy and team building
An understanding of the dangers of risk stereotyping and how to avoid it
Insights into your organizational risk culture
This program is perfect for:
Senior management
Teams with new leaders or otherwise managing change
Back-to-the-office or hybrid workplace transitions from work-at-home
This program is based on insights developed in Michele’s most recent book, "YOU ARE WHAT YOU RISK: The New Art and Science of Managing an Uncertain World."
Format:45 minute keynote; This topic can also be presented as a 30 minute presentation followed by a facilitated workshop
Understanding Your Risk Fingerprint
Do you see sitting still or making a bold move as being the bigger risk? Do you see opportunity where a colleague sees danger? Do you look before you leap or just take the plunge? When you see an obvious risk, do you face it head on or do your best to ignore it? The answers to these questions shape every choice you make about every risk you take. Recognizing why you answer them the way you do --the personality traits, experiences, group dynamics and deliberate decisions that make up your risk fingerprint--can help you to make better decisions in your career and life. Understanding how those around you see and respond to risk will help you connect with your clients and collaborate and negotiate more effectively with colleagues and partners. Learn about some of the surprising reasons -like what you had for lunch or the mix of people in the room- that affect how you see and respond to risks, and take away insights about how to put that knowledge to optimize your risk relationship and performance.
This program is perfect for:
Teams seeking to improve group dynamics and performance
Boards evaluating risk governance
Strategic planning groups looking to optimize risk decisions
Financial advisers working with clients of various risk profiles This program is based on insights developed in Michele’s most recent book, "YOU ARE WHAT YOU RISK: The New Art and Science of Managing an Uncertain World."
Format:Keynote or 60-90 minute workshop
Gray Rhinos in the Global Economy
This is one of Michele’s most frequently requested presentations, particularly for private audiences. Gray Rhinos in the Global Economy combines her deep experience and personal network in global policy, finance, and economics with the powerful framework she developed for helping decision makers to improve their responses to clear and present dangers. Join the CEOs, risk professionals, boards, thought leaders, and senior financial and national policy officials around the world who apply gray rhino theory to their strategic decision making.
This program is perfect for:
Senior Management
Chief Risk Officers
Board Retreats
Association Annual Meetings
The audience will leave with:
Insights into top 'gray rhino' risks in the global economy and their impact on business in general and specific industries
Guidance on what signs to look for to determine how these risks may play out
A dynamic systems approach to how these risks may interact and multiply their impact beyond the sum of the parts
A framework for improving strategic responses
Adaptable format: 45min keynote plus Q&A, or longer workshop/strategy planning session
Demographic Gray Rhinos: Robots Meet Aging and Migration
Tectonic shifts are coming in labor markets and consumer demographics, intensified by recent technological advances in additive manufacturing and machine learning. Together, they are a crash of obvious, highly probable yet neglected “gray rhino” challenges. * By 2050, there will be just one worker for every retiree, less than a third of the current level * Pension shortfalls in the U.S. alone are roughly $20 trillion * By 2044, the United States will be a majority minority country * Close to half of U.S. jobs could be lost to automation of everything from scheduling to driving to legal and financial analysis In this provocative talk, learn about the opportunities and pitfalls that your organization faces amid shifting demographics colliding with increasing automation, and strategies for getting ahead of the game.
Beyond Kicking the Can: How to Stop Muddling and Innovate
So you know what your organization’s biggest problem is. So why isn’t it fixed? Kicking the can down the road is human nature — so much so that we often take for granted that problems will persist. But the longer we let a problem go on, the more we lose in opportunity cost and the harder the problem becomes to fix. Learn from an expert on why organizations, individuals and policy makers don’t immediately deal with obvious dangers, how to get out of your own way, and how to turn a crisis into opportunity. In this talk drawing on real-world examples, you will: * Find out why the most obvious problems often get the least attention – at high cost. * Understand how to take off your blinders to obvious but neglected problems * Learn the reasons why decision makers muddle and how to counter them * Get inspiration from stories of business and policy leaders who overcame the urge to muddle * Recognize when it’s time to recognize a problem is unsolvable * Learn to turn frustration into innovation
Gray Rhino Proofing Your Future: Recognizing and Acting on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore
- Why we neglect, downplay, or outright deny highly probable, often preventable threats — and how much these oversights cost
- How to avoid “surprise” black swans by looking for obvious but neglected “gray rhino” risks, including common decision-making pitfalls
- Strategies that you can apply at each of the five stages of a typical gray rhino to rethink risk and make better decisions on investments and financial planning
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